Market Update: Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)

Just like the temperature, the market is getting hot again, and multiple offer situations are back.

Summertime is the hottest time for the real estate market, as it is the most convenient time for families to make moves (buy and sell). More houses are coming up for sale, but even more buyers are looking to buy. So while supply is increasing, demand is increasing at a higher rate.

Just in the last month, we have seen a 3.2% increase in median home prices in Duval County. Moreover, the average days on market is at 32 days, which is a 15.8% decrease compared to last month. Also, due to high demand, 19% of houses closed over asking price, which is an increase of 18% since last month.

In Duval county, we are still in a housing shortage. To have a balanced real estate market, meaning equal amounts of buyers and sellers, there should be 5-7 months worth of houses for sale. Currently, there are only 2.3 months of inventory (which is actually 34.2% higher than last month!).

So as the summer goes on, you can expect home prices to continue to rise, as well as competition, especially in certain neighborhoods that are desirable.

So what can we expect from interest rates?

At the start of May, the fed approved of its 10th rate hike in about a 12 month period, and many think this could be the last one for 2023! June 13-14 is the next fed meeting where they will discuss this, and their decision will be dependent on inflation and employment data. The fed’s target inflation goal is 2%, and while inflation IS decreasing, we are still around 5% (compared to its peak 9.1% in June of 2022). However, it takes longer than a year to see the true effects of rate hikes, so they are unsure if it has worked or not.

As for rate predictions for the rest of the year, its hard to say. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said he expects rates to fall to 5.5% by mid-2023. The MBA, or mortgage bankers association, see rates falling to 5.4% by the end of this year, as the economy weakens. Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, predicts rates will be in the high 5's at this year's end.

However, as I am writing this, rates are up to 6.95% for a 30 year conventional loan.

If you’re trying to decide when the best time to buy is: my advice is to always buy when it is best for you and your personal situation.. If rates drop later down the road, you can always refinance to get those rates!

If you are ready to start your home search, or just want to learn more about the process, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me!

*Data is from May 1 (summary of April)